**Flemington 29/10** **Tips by Fergo** Derby Day, do I nee..

**Flemington 29/10**

**Tips by Fergo**

Derby Day, do I need to say anything more?

R1: Open 3yo race this and Chris Waller holds a great record in it and think his progressive colt Pungo can bolster that, super fresh win so much scope to improve, Gate 1, Jmac. Tick and Tick.
**No.12 $3.30 1U Win**
*Top 4: 12-2-1-7*

R2: With the suspected heavy track, Realm of Flowers looks hard to beat she may scratch here to run in the Cup but if she runs here ill be on. Wide draw didnt hinder her last start just losing in The Metropolitan 3 wide the trip hopefully she can find a spot this time.
**No.7 $4.80 1U Win**
*Top 4: 7-8-10-1*

R3: Tricky race two at odds for me, The Astrologist backs up from last weeks group 1 which will have him rock hard fit, first two runs this prep were ok here but looks set to peak here and will give a sight. Curran may be the most unlucky horse in the state, down the straight it becomes easier to get a clear run and he will steam home.
**No.1 $12/$3.60 0.25U Win 0.75U Place & No.12 $12/$3.60 0.25U Win 0.75U Place**
*Top 4: 12-1-8-6*

R4: May see a few of these fillies back up into the oaks on Thursday and one I think could do so is So Dazzling, she won super here 2 starts ago and was unlucky last start and will eat up the 2000m, Damien Oliver has been out of form and wil be trying his hardest here.
**No.3 $8/$2.80 0.25U Win 1.25U Place**
*Top 4: 3-8-1-10*

R5: Tuurath looks very hard to beat here carried significant weight last start and won very well and looks to map better then any horse here just off the pace, assuming she gets a clear run in the straight hard to argue against her here one of the worlds best jockeys William Buick on is also a big plus.
**No.7 $3.60 1U Win**
*Top 4: 7-15-8-1*

R6: The first group one here is for the 3yos, this race is full of value in my eyes, Lofty Strike was returning off a long break last start on a testing track and just peaked late which he was inclined to do, he is a winner at the track already and I think is over the odds. Economics won very easily first up, was scratched at the gates second up but his recent jumpout down this course was very impressive, we havent seen the best of the horse and I think he can run a race.
**No.4 $23/$5 0.25U Win 0.75U Place & No.8 $13/$3.80 0.25U Win 0.75U Place**
*Top 4: 4-8-15-6*

R7: The feature race the derby and it looks to be one of the better editions in recent years, since drawing a wide gate Mr Maestro has drifted and I am happy to stick with him as I dont see any reason not too and put faith in Damien Lane to give him a decent run. Runs like he will and he is bred to handle this distance, wet track no worries!
**No.4 $7/$2.40 0.25U Win 1.25U Place**
*Top 4: 4-1-10-2*

R8: The final group one is for the fillies and mares and this race also looks to have some value, Yearnings first up run was elite, second up she was a bit plain but happy to assume she was looking for further, nice jumpout between runs and the barrier ensures she will be able to have clear running. I have always rated Daises as a horse and all her runs have been good this prep, she will get a nice run from barrier 3 and happy to have something on her at the odds also.
**No.12 $15/$4 0.25U Win 0.75U Place & No.13 $23/$6 0.25U Win 0.75U Place**
*Top 4: 12-13-14-1*

R9: Written Beauty looks a nice value bet in a very hard race to end the program, winner at the track and distance, wet track shouldnt worry her, wide gate may suit her at this point of the day, Jmac on, should also mention her last start run was very good.
**No.7 $13/$4 0.25U Win 0.75U Place**
*Top 4: 7-2-3-16*

Quaddie:
R6: 4,6,7,8,15
R7: 1,2,4
R8: 1,9,12,13,14
R9: 2,3,7,9,16,17
450 Combos

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